Bitcoin’s price is up slightly today (about 1.5%), hanging around $109,000. But don’t get too excited. Experts are saying it might drop further before any serious rebound.
Bitcoin Needs a Bigger Drop for a Real Bounce Back
A market analyst looked at data from CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics firm. They found that Bitcoin traders’ profit/loss margin is currently around -2.2%. That’s not nearly as bad as it’s been in the past.
Historically, Bitcoin has seen strong rebounds only after the profit/loss margin hits about -12%. This -12% mark signifies major losses for short-term investors, creating a buying opportunity for bigger players. We saw this happen in April 2025, July 2023, and October 2023. Each time, a drop below -12% was followed by a significant price increase.
Since we’re only at -2.2% now, a classic “capitulation” rebound is unlikely. More losses might be needed before Bitcoin really takes off. However, it’s also possible Bitcoin could just trade sideways for a while before climbing.
What’s the Outlook for Bitcoin?
Right now, Bitcoin is trading at around $109,528. While it’s up slightly today, it’s still down over 5% this week and last month. This suggests many recent buyers are underwater.
CryptoQuant also shows Bitcoin’s realized price (the average cost of all Bitcoins) is about $112,000. Trading below the realized price usually means weaker investor confidence and more selling. To turn things around, Bitcoin needs to break above $112,000. If that happens, we might see a price jump towards $116,000./p>
