Is Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle still relevant? Some say it’s dead, but one analyst thinks the next 100 days could be huge.
The Death of the Cycle?
The idea that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable four-year cycle is being questioned. Lots of new investors, especially since Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year, have changed the game. This influx of institutional money has made things less predictable.
A 100-Day Countdown?
But wait! One analyst, using the handle of famous economist Frank Fetter on X (formerly Twitter), thinks the cycle might still be alive and kicking. They looked at Bitcoin’s price performance over the past two cycles (2015-2018 and 2018-2022) and compared it to the current one.
Past Cycles vs. Present
Here’s what they found:
- 2015-2018: Bitcoin’s price increased by a whopping 110 times, taking 1,068 days to reach its peak.
- 2018-2022: A more mature market saw a 21-times price increase, reaching its peak in 1,060 days.
- Current Cycle (2022-Present): Bitcoin is up 7.3 times from its 2022 low, and it’s been 997 days.
If the four-year cycle holds true, we’re only about 100 days away from the peak of this cycle!
What This Means
This could mean one of two things:
- Optimistic View: Bitcoin might have one last big price surge before it tops out.
- Pessimistic View: If the price keeps going up strongly even after 100 days, the four-year cycle theory might be officially over. This could lead to longer bull markets and shorter bear markets for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s Current Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $117,625, up a tiny 0.3% in the last 24 hours.