JPMorgan Chase’s chief global strategist, David Kelly, believes the US might dodge a recession, but doesn’t expect a booming economy anytime soon. He recently shared his outlook on CNBC.
Recession Avoided? Maybe.
Kelly attributes the potential avoidance of a recession to a few key factors: a pullback on tariffs and a large tax bill that will continue to stimulate the economy through 2026. He stated that these factors shift the probability of a recession from “more than likely” to “less than likely” this year. However, he emphasized that this doesn’t mean smooth sailing.
Slow Growth on the Horizon
Kelly predicts slow economic growth for the foreseeable future. He points to several factors contributing to this sluggishness.
Consumer Spending Slowdown
He expects consumer spending to decrease due to economic uncertainty, potential inflation from tariffs, renewed student loan payments, and government spending cuts. While acknowledging consumer resilience, he believes these pressures will eventually take their toll.
In short, while a recession might be avoided, the US economy is expected to experience a period of slow growth.