Bitcoin recently surged past $100,000, hitting its highest point since January 2025. But is this a sign of things to come, or a potential crash? Let’s look at some data.
What’s the Advanced NVT Saying?
Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci points to the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio as a key indicator. This metric is a more sophisticated version of the regular NVT, comparing Bitcoin’s market cap to its daily transaction volume. A high NVT suggests the market cap is growing faster than transaction volume.
When the Advanced NVT goes more than two standard deviations (2xSD) above its long-term average, it usually means trouble – or a huge opportunity. Historically, this has often preceded either a big price jump (a parabolic rally) or a significant correction.
Kesmeci’s analysis shows the Advanced NVT is currently above this 2xSD threshold. While it might not stay there, he notes that extended periods above 2xSD often happen only before a parabolic rally. He even mentions that during such rallies, the NVT can go much higher, potentially exceeding 4xSD, as seen after the approval of Spot ETFs.
However, it’s not a guaranteed prediction. The NVT doesn’t always
Bitcoin’s Recent Price Action
Bitcoin’s price has been on a roll. It recently broke back above $100,000 for the first time since February. At the time of writing, it’s trading just above $103,100, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours and over 6% for the week.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is at a crucial point. The Advanced NVT is flashing a signal, but whether it leads to a massive price increase or a correction remains to be seen. Investors should keep a close eye on this metric.
