Bitcoin’s price action has analysts divided. While some see a continued bull run, others warn of potential trouble ahead. Let’s examine the different perspectives.
Elliott Wave Theory: Bullish Outlook
Analyst Tolimanu uses the Elliott Wave Theory to predict Bitcoin’s future. This theory suggests that a five-wave upward movement indicates a primary trend, followed by a three-wave (“ABC”) correction. Tolimanu believes Bitcoin is currently in this corrective phase. He argues that as long as Bitcoin doesn’t break major long-term support levels, this correction will simply set the stage for the next bullish phase, potentially leading to new all-time highs. However, he acknowledges a potential drop to as low as $73,969 during this correction.
Technical Analysis: Cautious Signals
Technical expert Tony Severino offers a more cautious outlook. He points to several concerning indicators:
- Bearish Momentum: Severino warns that a bearish shift in daily momentum could derail the bullish trend, pushing the weekly LMACD (a momentum indicator) below zero.
- RSI Below 70: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key indicator. Severino highlights that Bitcoin’s RSI hasn’t convincingly broken above 70, a level crucial for confirming bullish momentum. Past failures to surpass 70 have preceded significant price drops. He notes that throughout 2023 and the current year, the RSI has remained stubbornly below this key threshold.
CME Gaps and Support Levels
Analyst Titan of Crypto focuses on CME futures gaps. These gaps represent price ranges where trading occurred without filling the price range. Currently, Bitcoin has gaps both above and below its current price. The upside gap sits between $96,480 and $97,300, while the downside gap is between $91,990 and $93,400. Titan suggests Bitcoin might fill the lower gap before potentially rising to the upper gap. He identifies a key support level around $90,000, suggesting a bounce from this level could target $102,096.
Current Price and Conclusion
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,300, slightly down in the last 24 hours. The conflicting analyses highlight the uncertainty in the market. While some analysts remain bullish, others emphasize the need for caution given several technical indicators pointing towards bearish pressure. The coming days will be crucial in determining which scenario unfolds.
