Bitcoin hit a record high of over $109,000 earlier this year. But did that mark the peak of the market? Several technical indicators suggest it might have.
The MVRV Z-Score Points Downward
Analyst Tony Severino’s analysis combines the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to paint a bearish picture. The MVRV Z-Score has broken below a key support line—something that historically only happens after Bitcoin reaches its peak in a bull market. This happened before the peaks in both 2017 and 2021.
The monthly RSI is also providing a warning. It’s fallen below 70 twice, indicating weakening momentum. Historically, this happens after price tops, not before. Even more concerning, the RSI-based moving average is curving downwards—another signal that only appears after a market peak.
All this points towards the $109,000 price being the top of this cycle, and a potential prolonged bear market. This is backed up by recent price drops, lower investor confidence, and a generally cautious market sentiment.
Could Bulls Still Save the Day?
Despite the bearish signals, Severino notes that bulls are trying to stage a comeback. If they can keep the momentum going through April, his bearish prediction could be wrong.
Bitcoin is currently testing a key support level, and there are early signs of a bullish reversal in the monthly MACD. A potential “Morning Star” candlestick pattern adds to the intrigue. Similar patterns in 2022 and mid-2023 marked significant turning points for Bitcoin. A successful “Morning Star” pattern by the end of April could completely change the outlook.
