Bitcoin’s price is hanging around some crucial levels right now, and things are pretty uncertain in the global economy.
Bitcoin’s Recent Rebound and the Macro Picture
After a bumpy ride, Bitcoin bounced back nicely last week thanks to President Trump’s announcement of a temporary tariff pause (excluding China). This gave the markets a bit of a breather, and both crypto and stocks saw some short-term gains. But the overall situation is still pretty shaky.
Bitcoin’s Growing Correlation with Traditional Markets
New data shows Bitcoin is increasingly mirroring traditional financial markets (TradFi). Since March, when Trump first announced tariffs, Bitcoin’s correlation with major indexes like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 has shot up above 0.75. This means Bitcoin is acting less like a safe haven and more like a risky asset that reacts to big economic news. With Bitcoin just below a key resistance level and the market still nervous, the next price move will be huge for the short to medium term. Traders are watching closely for both economic events and technical signals.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Drives Bitcoin’s Price
Global tensions and economic uncertainty are still major factors affecting Bitcoin’s price. With inflation easing and the US stock market being volatile, many think the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates to stabilize the economy. But any big policy changes are still weeks away, and the US-China situation is changing rapidly, keeping everyone on edge. Bitcoin’s price is closely following traditional markets. Analyst Maartunn points out the strong correlation with major indexes – since March, it’s been above 0.75. This means traditional markets are leading the way, and Bitcoin is just following along. This makes Bitcoin more sensitive to economic news and stock market swings than to crypto-specific events. However, if the economy improves (like with rate cuts or better relations between the US and China), Bitcoin could make a big move.
Bitcoin’s Price: Consolidation and the Road Ahead
Bitcoin is currently trading around $84,000 after a period of sideways movement. On the 4-hour chart, it’s holding above the $75,000 support level but facing resistance just below $89,000. This shows that the market is unsure what to do next. Bitcoin has regained its 4-hour 200-day moving average (around $83,500) and is testing the 4-hour exponential moving average (around $84,000). Breaking above these levels would be a positive sign and could push the price towards $88,000 and possibly $90,000. But the situation is still fragile. If Bitcoin falls below $82,500, the downward pressure could increase, potentially leading to a sharp drop below $80,000. This would reverse the recent recovery and likely cause panic selling. Whether Bitcoin can stay above key moving averages and build momentum, or if sellers take control and push the price down, is what everyone is watching.