Bitcoin’s price has been pretty disappointing in 2025, failing to build on the late 2024 rally. Despite this, many investors still hope for one last big price surge. But a new on-chain analysis suggests a bear market might be upon us. Is it time to cash out, or is there still a chance for a final upward swing?
The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) and What It Means
A crypto analyst, Maartunn, on the CryptoQuant platform, looked at the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric. This metric tracks Bitcoin movement between spot and derivatives exchanges.
- Bullish Signal: Lots of Bitcoin flowing to derivatives exchanges suggests traders are opening long positions, betting on price increases.
- Bearish Signal: Lots of Bitcoin flowing away
from derivatives exchanges and into spot exchanges suggests traders are closing long positions and reducing risk, often a sign of a bearish market.
The IFP has recently turned bearish again. This indicates falling market confidence and possibly the start of a bear market. The last time this happened (mid-2024), Bitcoin’s price stagnated. A sustained bearish IFP period previously coincided with Bitcoin’s price crash from over $60,000 to under $20,000 in 2022.
Bitcoin’s Current Price and Outlook
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $97,500, with little movement in the last day or week (a mere 1.2% gain over seven days). This lack of movement, combined with the bearish IFP signal, paints a concerning picture for those hoping for a final bull run.
