A recent analysis suggests Bitcoin’s infamous four-year boom-and-bust cycle might be a thing of the past.
The Four-Year Cycle: A Thing of the Past?
Bitcoin has historically followed a pattern: three years of massive gains followed by a significant drop. This mirrors broader economic cycles, with periods of growth leading to over-investment and eventual corrections. Past crashes were often triggered by events like the Mt. Gox collapse (2014) or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs.
The “Mainstream Cycle” Begins
The current bull run, however, is different. It started in March 2023, fueled by Grayscale’s successful legal challenge against the SEC regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF. The approval and launch of the ETF in January 2024 brought a massive influx of investment, solidifying Bitcoin’s mainstream acceptance.
A Presidential Boost
A key factor in this shift is a recent executive order from President Trump. This order declared the growth of the US digital asset ecosystem a national priority, outlining plans for a national crypto stockpile and encouraging banks to embrace digital assets. This, combined with a more supportive SEC, could unlock trillions in new investment.
Will 2026 See a Bear Market?
Historically, Bitcoin has seen pullbacks after bull runs. But with major players like BlackRock actively involved, a traditional crash in 2026 seems less likely. While leverage is still building, the increased diversity of investors could lessen the impact of any downturn.
A Softer Landing?
The author predicts that any future correction will be shorter and less severe than previous ones. The industry’s stronger infrastructure and mainstream acceptance of crypto as a legitimate asset class suggest a dramatic bear market is less probable. The overall sentiment is extremely positive. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $105,275.
