A crypto analyst, TradingShot, recently weighed in on Bitcoin’s recent price rejection at $99,000. Is this the end of the bull run, or just a temporary blip? TradingShot believes it’s the latter.
Why the $99,000 Rejection?
TradingShot suggests the rejection at $99,000 is likely temporary, citing a few possible reasons:
- Post-Election Hype Fade: The market might have already priced in the anticipated pro-crypto policies of a potential President Trump. The initial excitement is wearing off.
- The $100,000 Psychological Barrier: Investors often take profits at round numbers like $100,000, leading to a temporary price dip.
Technical Analysis: Fibonacci and Market Cycles
TradingShot used Fibonacci retracement levels to support his analysis. He pointed to a Fibonacci channel spanning the last three Bitcoin cycles. This channel shows a consistent resistance level around the 0.236 Fibonacci level, which is where the current rejection occurred. He calls this the “first real resistance” of the bull cycle.
Historically, the peak of previous cycles has been near the 0.0 Fibonacci level within this channel. Based on this pattern, the chart suggests a potential Bitcoin price exceeding $200,000. However, TradingShot clarifies that the projected date (around late 2025) is for illustrative comparison only, not a firm prediction.
Timing the Top
Based on the roughly 150-week duration of past bull cycles, TradingShot estimates the current cycle’s peak could arrive around late September or early October. However, he emphasizes the difficulty of precisely predicting the peak price, advising instead to focus on timing the market’s top rather than pinpointing an exact price.
He adds a note of optimism: The current rally began on August 5th, aligning with key moving averages. As long as this trendline holds, the overall bullish trend should remain intact.
